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Apr13
Forecasts!
The only thing you can be almost certain about with a forecast is that it'll be wrong.
Plans for infrastructure - particularly public transport infrastructure - have often been criticised for over-optimism.
There is a book - "Megaprojects and risk" - about some notable failures to get the forecasts reasonably right. In my view it damaged its credibility in particular by citing Channel Tunnel experience - that project was just so political that no forecasts were likely to be reliable. It also looked at the Oresund Fixed Crossing and added to the outturn costs the Malmo City Tunnel, a free-standing project (not yet completed) which is not part of the Oresund project at all.
Highway infrastructure projects have also been criticised recently for bad forecasting. In "Infrastructure Investor"'s review of the year 2009, Michael Dinham of ING Bank notes that only two of the 30 toll roads the bank has lent money to have met their original forecasts, and under-performance on the rest has averaged 40%. The range is 10% to 80%. Roads, he concludes, are the worst-performing sub-sector within infrastructure.
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